Risk is amorphous, creating investment opportunities and threats to capital at each stage of the cycle.
In response, investors must watch for familiar patterns and new disruptions amid streams of financial indicators.
Models based on statistical history can serve as useful, if inexact, guides to the future. But we need to use all the tools at hand, going beyond number crunching to consider geopolitical tensions and sustainability concerns, to separate meaningful signals from the noise.
We recommend tracking the following six indicators to recognise risk in its current form – and identify where opportunities lie.