CLOSE

We permit the publication of our auditors’ report, provided the report is published in full only and is accompanied by the full financial statements to which our auditors’ report relates, and is only published on an access-controlled page on your website https://www.hermes-investment.com, to enable users to verify that an auditors’ report by independent accountants has been commissioned by the directors and issued. Such permission to publish is given by us without accepting or assuming any responsibility or liability to any third party users save where we have agreed terms with them in writing.

Our consent is given on condition that before any third party accesses our auditors’ report via the webpage they first document their agreement to the following terms of access to our report via a click-through webpage with an 'I accept' button. The terms to be included on your website are as follows:

I accept and agree for and on behalf of myself and the Trust I represent (each a "recipient") that:

  1. PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (“PwC”) accepts no liability (including liability for negligence) to each recipient in relation to PwC’s report. The report is provided to each recipient for information purposes only. If a recipient relies on PwC’s report, it does so entirely at its own risk;
  2. No recipient will bring a claim against PwC which relates to the access to the report by a recipient;
  3. Neither PwC’s report, nor information obtained from it, may be made available to anyone else without PwC’s prior written consent, except where required by law or regulation; and
  4. PwC’s report was prepared with Hermes Property Unit Trust's interests in mind. It was not prepared with any recipient's interests in mind or for its use. PwC’s report is not a substitute for any enquiries that a recipient should make. The financial statements are as at 25 March 2017, and thus PwC’s auditors’ report is based on historical information. Any projection of such information or PwC’s opinion thereon to future periods is subject to the risk that changes may occur after the reports are issued and the description of controls may no longer accurately portray the system of internal control. For these reasons, such projection of information to future periods would be inappropriate.
  5. PwC will be entitled to the benefit of and to enforce these terms.
I accept
CLOSE

1. Select your country

  • United Kingdom
  • Austria
  • Australia
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Iceland
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Luxembourg
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Singapore
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • USA
  • Other

2. Select your investor type

  • Financial Advisor
  • Discretionary Investment Manager
  • Wealth Manager
  • Family Office
  • Institutional Investor
  • Investment Consultant
  • Charity, Foundation & Endowment Investor
  • Retail Investor
  • Press
  • None of the above

3. Accept our terms and conditions

By clicking Proceed I confirm I have read the important information and agree to the terms of use.

Proceed

The Hermes Investment Management website uses cookies to remember your preferences and help us improve the site.
By proceeding, you agree to cookies being placed on your computer.
Read our privacy and cookie policy.

Letting the tide go out

Home / Press Centre / Letting the tide go out

Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser
12 September 2018
Macro Economics

In his Q4 Economic outlook, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, argues that even a decade after the fall of Lehman Brothers - central banks will be slow to lift a tide of liquidity still hiding the rocks beneath.

Letting the tide go out...
Ten years after the fall of Lehman Brothers, major economies have more than recouped their real GDP. Much of this can be accredited to nine years of monetary stimuli - conventional and unorthodox - that was unparalleled since the 1930s.

Therefore, with recoveries now maturing, unemployment rates down and asset prices bloated by a decade of cheap money, central bankers sound more hawkish - suggesting an inflection point. However, the reality is they will be slow to lift the tide of liquidity still hiding the rocks beneath.

As a result of QE, the world’s big four central banks‘ balance sheets have surpassed $15trn. This means about 40% of the world’s $25trn central bank assets has amassed in just nine years. That is, after the last US recession ended in mid-2009.

This injection to the private sector is equivalent to about one half of US GDP or three-quarters of China’s. Furthermore, of the four central banks, three are by their own definition (that it’s the stock that matters) still running QE, with little convincing sign of stopping.

However, QE has only been partially successful. It helped unclog the financial system in 2009, but by inflating asset prices since, later rounds of it could be accused of getting to those that needed it least.

On the premise that QT’s effects will be the corollary of QE’s, a fear is that quantitative tightening (QT) now contributes to an asset-price deflation that throws away the ‘baby’ (recovery) with the bath water. This risk is probably most acute in the long-rate sensitive US and euro-zone.

Yet, the US Fed is the test-case for QT, and could be underestimating its effect. By sustaining it, the Fed could take out as much as 175bps of further rate hikes by 2020. In which case, the Fed will fall easily short of their preferred 3.25-3.50%, ‘Goldilocks’ policy rate (i.e. not too hot, not too cold).

Share this post:
Neil Williams Senior Economic Adviser Neil joined Hermes in August 2009 and is responsible for Hermes’ economic research. He has a forward-looking approach to generate investment strategy ideas. Neil adopts top-down methods – macro and market analysis to identify interest rate and credit value, and sovereign default risk. Neil began his career in 1987 at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), becoming its youngest ever Head of Economic Policy. He went on to hold a number of senior positions in investment banks - including Director of Bond Research at UBS, Head of Research at Sumitomo International, Global Head of Emerging Markets Research at PaineWebber International, and, before coming to Hermes, Head of Sovereign Research and Strategy at Mizuho International. Neil has 30 years’ industry experience and earned an MA in Economics in 1986 from Manchester University, having the previous year completed his BSc (Hons), also in Economics, from University College Swansea.
Read all articles by Neil Williams

Find posts by author

  • Alex Knox, ACA
  • Amy Wilson
  • Andrew Jackson
  • Andrew Parry
  • Andrey Kuznetsov, CFA
  • Audra Stundziaite
  • Claire Gavini
  • Dr Michael Viehs
  • Elena Tedesco
  • Emeric Chenebaux
  • Eoin Murray
  • Gary Greenberg
  • Geir Lode
  • Geoffrey Wan, CFA
  • Hamish Galpin
  • Harriet Steel
  • Ilana Elbim
  • Ingrid Holmes
  • Jonathan Pines, CFA
  • Joseph Buckley
  • Kimberley Lewis
  • Louise Dudley
  • Mark Sherlock, CFA
  • Martin Todd
  • Maxime Le Floch, CFA
  • Michael Russell, CFA
  • Michael Vaughan
  • Mitch Reznick, CFA
  • Neil Williams
  • Nick Spooner
  • Nina Röhrbein
  • Patrick Marshall
  • Peter Hofbauer
  • Philip Nell
  • Saker Nusseibeh
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
  • Tatiana Bosteels
  • Tim Crockford
  • Tim Goodman
  • Tommaso Mancuso
  • Yasmin Chowdhury

Find posts by category

  • macro economics

Press contacts