Can financial markets predict the future?
During some pivotal episodes in modern history, investors have collectively made disastrously wrong forecasts. Hollywood, meanwhile, has envisaged events to come with more clarity
After more than three decades, the largely benign macroeconomic environment in developed markets seems to be changing for the worse. This requires investors to dust off old analytical toolkits still used by emerging markets managers for top-down research
We illustrate how top-down analysis can inform a bottom-up stock portfolio and provide an emerging markets outlook for the next two years – which seems calm relative to the tumult of the world political economy