Can financial markets predict the future?
During some pivotal episodes in modern history, investors have collectively made disastrously wrong forecasts. Hollywood, meanwhile, has envisaged events to come with more clarity
After more than three decades, the largely benign macroeconomic environment in developed markets seems to be changing for the worse. This requires investors to dust off old analytical toolkits still used by emerging markets managers for top-down research
We illustrate how top-down analysis can inform a bottom-up stock portfolio and provide an emerging markets outlook for the next two years – which seems calm relative to the tumult of the world political economy
Gary Greenberg, who joined Hermes in September 2010, is Head of Hermes Global Emerging Markets.
Prior to this, he was managing partner at Silkstone Capital and Muse Capital, both London-based hedge funds he co-founded and managed in 2007 and 2002, respectively. From 1999 through 2002 he was executive director at Goldman Sachs in New York and London, where he co-headed the emerging markets product for GSAM and served on the global asset allocation and European stock selection committees. From 1998 to 1999 he was managing director at Van Eck Global in Hong Kong and New York, where he was the lead portfolio manager for international equities and ran the Hong Kong office. From 1994 through 1998 Gary was chief investment officer at Peregrine Asset Management in Hong Kong, managing and supervising global and regional equity, plus fixed income funds. In the early years of his career he was a principal of Wanger Asset Management in Chicago, where he co-founded and co-managed the Acorn International Fund, which grew to $1.4bn under his tenure. Gary holds an MBA from Thunderbird School, a BA from Carleton College and is a CFA charterholder.
In 2017, the Hermes Global Emerging Markets Fund was named best emerging markets fund for the second year in a row at the Investment Week Fund Manager of the Year Awards, best emerging markets fund by InvestmentEurope, and best emerging markets group by Citywire Deutschland. Gary was named best manager for emerging markets equity by Citywire UK.