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Fixed Income

  • March 5, 2019
    End-of-bull market rumours may be exaggerated
    Andrew Jackson
    Turbulence, disruption and uncertainty have always provided instances of opportunity for the savvy fixed income investor.
  • February 1, 2019
    Engine room: credit insights from the Detroit Motor Show
    Ilana Elbim
    The Detroit Motor Show coincides with a smattering of industry conferences to make January a busy month in the automotive sector – and a good source of intelligence for credit investors. This time, the insights we gained reaffirmed our conviction in a long-held relative-value trade involving two giants from the Motor City.
  • January 28, 2019
    In the volatile energy sector, where can credit investors find stability?
    Audra Stundziaite
    The high-yield energy sector underperformed in the final quarter of last year as oil prices sold off. Amid this volatility, how can credit investors find stable outperformers?
  • January 16, 2019
    UK ‘bulks’: weighty opportunities in a slim sector
  • January 8, 2019
    Controlling disruption exposure increasingly important in high-yield portfolios
    Fraser Lundie, CFA
    After navigating through Q3, which historically tends to be a difficult quarter, several common themes are beginning to emerge across US money centre banks. Our thesis on the sector remains intact, with fundamentals continuing to improve despite pressure on revenues. Citigroup was the standout this quarter, but Bank of America lagged. Several years of the so-called zero interest rate policy are taking a toll on net interest incomes for the sector and forcing the banks into aggressive rounds of cost cutting. Regulation and oversight remains the main driver of industry fundamentals, credit profiles and spread movements. Senior and T2 issuances will likely increase on Orderly Liquidation Authority and Total Loss Absorbing Capital (TLAC) needs. We believe increased loss absorption capital will be positive for our bonds. P&Ls: Reported profitability did range from 7% of return on equity at Bank of America to 12% at Wells Fargo, which had the help of an outsized $0.9bn of equity gains Soft mortgage banking trends came to us as no surprise given further tightening of mortgage standards in the first half of the year, as well as lower volumes. We will be watching these mortgage lending standards closely, as mortgages represent a little less of 70% of US consumer debt and could be drag on GDP growth forcing the US Federal Reserve to keep rates lower for longer.
  • October 25, 2018
    Latin America at the ballot box: a buying opportunity for credit investors?
    Andrey Kuznetsov, CFA
    Latin American countries have been convulsed by political and economic tumult in recent months. On Sunday, Brazilian voters will go to the polls in the second-round runoff of a presidential election that has been dominated by three issues: economic weakness, corruption scandals and rising levels of violence.