The winner of the UK’s Conservative Party leadership contest – and the new Prime Minister – will be announced. Voting took place from 6-21 July among the Tory Party’s 160,000 members. Boris Johnson is the firm favourite and should prevail over Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt. On 24 July, Theresa May speaks at her final Prime Minister’s Questions before submitting her resignation to the Queen. Both candidates are open to a no-deal Brexit if there is no agreement with the European Union (EU) by 31 October. Johnson has even contemplated proroguing Parliament, although this is no longer viable after the House of Commons voted last week to block any suspension in the run up to Brexit day. Separately, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will release its Q3 business-optimism index, which will throw light on the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty. The index bounced back to -15.1 in the second quarter, up from -26.4 in Q1, which was the lowest reading since the post-EU referendum result in 2016. Relief that the 29 March Brexit deadline had been extended was probably behind the surge. Despite the boost, the index is still well below its long-term average of -3.5. Across the Channel, the ECB releases its bank-lending survey. The results are part of the package of information the central bank will consider during its monetary-policy meeting on Thursday. The last report showed that bank-lending standards were broadly stable, but loan demand slowed further. While the release indicated that negative interest rates are weighing on banks' profits, they were also effective in encouraging banks to lend more. The eurozone will also report consumer confidence, which has come in at between -7.5 and -6.5 since the beginning of the year and is likely to move sideways in July. This may be below the cycle’s high of -3.4 in December 2017, but it is above the long-term average of -10.5, which is testament to the relative strength of the European labour market. Elsewhere, the Hungarian central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.9%.