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Ahead of the Curve, Q2 2021

In the latest edition of Ahead of the Curve, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist, provides a macroeconomic update and delves into three themes: inflationary concerns, notable divergences between advanced and emerging economies and where we stand on building back better from the Covid-19 pandemic.

Key points

  • The global economy is bouncing back quickly from a sharp collapse in the first half of last year. What we are seeing now, therefore, is to some extent the mirror image of developments in 2020.
  • Despite having increased somewhat over the last year, long-term inflation expectations are still low by historical standards.
  • The growing bifurcation between emerging and developed markets is a source of fragility for the recovery.
  • Fiscal measures targeting longer-term issues have been more elusive and there is therefore a risk of going back to a pre-Covid-19 macroeconomic scenario.

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