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Authors

  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The current US economic expansion that began in 2009 will mark its ten-year anniversary in June.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The stakes are high for elections to the European Parliament in May.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    Fed meeting in focus; May calls a third Brexit vote ahead of EU summit
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    Emerging-market economies experienced a year of tumult in 2018 amid less accommodative global financial conditions, slowing economic growth in China and fraught US-China trade relations.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    •The new political landscape in Italy is hardly surprising: it has emerged from the convergence of both global tendencies and idiosyncratic factors. •Going forward, Italy’s short-term economic outlook includes some positive elements. However, material downside risks loom amid high policy uncertainty, both domestically and externally. •Italy’s long-term issues include the sustainability of its large public debt and more importantly, its poor growth prospects. Labour productivity growth has been on a downward trajectory since the early ‘90s.
  • 13/02/2018
    Outcomes
    Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The shape of the US Treasury yield curve generally contains useful information about future developments in the real economy. In particular, when the Treasury yield curve inverts – that is, when short-term rates exceed long-term yields – a recession usually follows in the next 12 months. Historically, the yield curve has been a very accurate forecasting tool: a curve inversion has preceded each of the last seven recessions in the US. The Treasury yield curve flattened significantly in 2017, and last month, the spread between 10-year yields and two-year yields narrowed to about 50bps. It is therefore possible that the spread could turn negative at some point this year. As such, it is unsurprising that market observers have become nervous about the possibility of an economic slowdown. But given the current environment of loose monetary policy, to what extent should we trust the US yield curve as a harbinger of a recession?