Search this website. You can use fund codes to locate specific funds


  • Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist, responds to UK budget
    Silvia Dall’Angelo
    For all the resounding announcements, catchy slogans and jokes, today’s Budget amounted to little in practical terms. Chancellor Philip Hammond announced “a Budget for Britain’s future” and reiterated that, after almost a decade of spending cuts, fiscal austerity was “coming to an end”, as also suggested by the Prime Minister during the Tory party conference early this month. Alas, it is not happening now, it is only vaguely defined in practical terms, and it is conditional on a good Brexit deal.
  • Escalating trade war is biggest risk for world economy
    Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The trade tariffs – and corresponding retaliatory measures – implemented are so far limited. In total, the value of affected trade now amounts to about $150bn globally, or 0.8% of overall world exports. However, adding up all the measures currently under discussion and assuming impacted countries retaliate commensurately, the amount of targeted trade could quickly rise to more than $1tn, or 6% of global exports. In her latest Ahead of the Curve, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment Management, argues an escalation of protectionist measures evolving into a trade war could represent the biggest challenge to the world economy.
  • Italy and Europe: the integration dilemma
    Silvia Dall’Angelo
    •The new political landscape in Italy is hardly surprising: it has emerged from the convergence of both global tendencies and idiosyncratic factors. •Going forward, Italy’s short-term economic outlook includes some positive elements. However, material downside risks loom amid high policy uncertainty, both domestically and externally. •Italy’s long-term issues include the sustainability of its large public debt and more importantly, its poor growth prospects. Labour productivity growth has been on a downward trajectory since the early ‘90s.
  • February 13, 2018
    The US yield curve as a predictor of recession: should we trust it this time?
    Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The shape of the US Treasury yield curve generally contains useful information about future developments in the real economy. In particular, when the Treasury yield curve inverts – that is, when short-term rates exceed long-term yields – a recession usually follows in the next 12 months. Historically, the yield curve has been a very accurate forecasting tool: a curve inversion has preceded each of the last seven recessions in the US. The Treasury yield curve flattened significantly in 2017, and last month, the spread between 10-year yields and two-year yields narrowed to about 50bps. It is therefore possible that the spread could turn negative at some point this year. As such, it is unsurprising that market observers have become nervous about the possibility of an economic slowdown. But given the current environment of loose monetary policy, to what extent should we trust the US yield curve as a harbinger of a recession?