When inflation woke from its decade-and-a-half long sleep in the spring of 2020, there was the widespread presumption that it would fade away by the summer. Now, on the cusp of another winter of rising prices, even the chair of the US Federal Reserve admits that “we have to be humble about what we know about this economy.”
The factors influencing inflation are complex, varied and non-linear. No two sectors, asset classes or portfolios will be impacted in the same way and there is no history that quite aligns with where we are now. This edition of
Spectrum has been a call for vigilance.