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Turkey’s election: a case for cautious optimism?

Home / Perspectives / Turkey’s election: a case for cautious optimism?

Andrey Kuznetsov, CFA, Portfolio Manager
21 June 2018
Credit

Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections will take place this Sunday amid a febrile political and economic climate. In recent months, the country has been grappling with double-digit inflation, a pressured lira and fears over the independence of its central bank. As voters prepare to go to the polls, we assess the investment landscape in Turkey.

Turkey is no stranger to political instability.  On Sunday, Turks will go to the polls for the sixth time in four years, and for the second time under emergency law after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan brought forward the election by 18 months1. The move, Erdogan said, reflects the country’s need to “overcome uncertainty”2, but critics argue he wants to push through the vote before the country’s economic woes get materially worse.

In Turkey, polls are quite unreliable, but for now it looks like Erdogan will win the presidential race. However, it is likely that his victory will only be sealed in the second round run-off, which will take place on 8 July, should no candidate receive an outright majority this weekend.

The parliamentary election, however, looks too close to call. There is a risk that Erdogan’s ruling AK Party and the nationalist MHP party will not retain a parliamentary majority after Sunday’s vote. But success for the opposition will probably make it more difficult to pass much-needed fiscal and structural reforms. Such an outcome would cause more uncertainty for the country and investors, and increase the likelihood of further elections.

Economic concerns worry voters

Already, voters have been spooked by the country’s flailing economy: the lira has depreciated by about 25% against the US dollar so far this year, hurt by domestic politics and global monetary policy, a series of tirades by Erdogan against high interest rates have sparked concerns about central bank independence, and inflation is stuck in double-digit territory.

First-quarter economic growth was strong at 7.4%. However, it is widely expected that the Turkish economy will have slowed sharply in the second quarter due to recent lira weakness and a trio of interest-rate hikes totalling 500 basis points (bps) since April.

Buying opportunities?

Indeed, several emerging market countries have experienced volatility amid a backdrop of political uncertainty, and Turkey is no different. Macro uncertainty has weighed on investors sentiment in the country.

At present, there is a significant premium priced in to Turkish sovereign bonds. For example, the 6% Turkish sovereign bond maturing in 2027 is trading 450bps over US Treasuries, and it has widened by about 200bps so far this year. This has created opportunities for investors to gain exposure to companies with robust levers that can withstand the current macro environment, such as exporters and well capitalised, domestically focused businesses. One such example is current holding Turk Telekom.

Figure 1: The spread of Turkish sovereign bonds over US Treasuries has widened this year

charts-turkey

Source: Bloomberg as at 20 June 2018

Turk Telekom: emitting good signals?

The incumbent integrated telecommunications giant Turk Telekom provides local, national, international and mobile telecommunication services, internet products and services.

In the first quarter, Turk Telekom reported strong earnings, with revenue growing in-line with inflation. It also generated decent subscriber growth during this period. Consolidated revenues increased 8.8% year-on-year to 4.7bn lira, while EBITDA grew by 29% year-on-year to 2.0bn lira3.

Despite a strong start to the year, the recent lira weakness will have an impact on the company’s credit profile. Nevertheless, there are several mitigating factors. Turk Telekom’s ability to partly pass on inflation to consumers should help ease the adverse impact of the sharp lira depreciation on its group revenue and margin. Moreover, its large share of hard currency debt will have a smaller impact than in the past as the company has been steadily increasing its hedging of this exposure. These factors, together with a focus on deleveraging, should help Turk Telekom weather the storm.

Balancing stakeholder interests

The most notable mitigating factor, however, was Turk Telekom’s decision not to pay a dividend during 20184. The impact of the ongoing depreciation of the lira against the US dollar and the euro led to an increase in the group’s interest bearing liabilities, particularly in Q4 2017. Based on our conversations with the company, this prudent decision serves to highlight the company’s desire to delever its balance sheet – and thereby, de-risk the business – during a period of heightened uncertainty. Furthermore, the board’s sensible focus on managing financial risk during this period of volatility reflects its aim to balance the interests of all stakeholders, and is good corporate governance, in our view.

Turkey: a good call?

The uncertainty of any major presidential and parliamentary election is always likely to pose some risk. However, despite a fragmented political landscape and economic concerns, there are good investment opportunities in Turkey – and we believe Turk Telekom is one credit issuer that is well placed to perform well in the current market environment.

This document does not constitute a solicitation or offer to any person to buy or sell any related securities or financial instruments.

  1. 1 “Why has Turkey’s president called early elections?” published by The Economist on 21 April 2018
  2. 2 “Erdogan calls for early elections in Turkey, citing need to overcome uncertainties,” published by The Washington Post on 18 April 2018.
  3. 3 “2018 First Quarter Financial and Operational Results,” published by Turk Telekom Group on 25 April 2018.
  4. 4 “2017 Dividend Distribution Board Resolution,” published by Turk Telekom on 28 May 2018
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Andrey Kuznetsov, CFA Portfolio Manager Andrey joined Hermes in January 2013 and is currently portfolio manager across Hermes Credit's portfolios, having previously been senior analyst covering metals & mining, chemicals and building products. Andrey has extensive experience covering various industries including TMT, paper & packaging, autos, capital goods, and healthcare. Prior to joining Hermes he was at BCM & Partners LLP, where he focused on credit analysis of high yield corporates and assisted the CIO in the management of the multi-strategy credit fund. Andrey holds an undergraduate degree in Economics from State University – Higher School of Economics in Moscow, where he majored in Financial Engineering and Mandarin Chinese, and a graduate degree from London Business School. Andrey is a native Russian speaker and CFA® charterholder.
Read all articles by Andrey Kuznetsov, CFA

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