Nearshoring opportunities brighten Mexico’s outlook
Fast reading: Manufacturing exports account for 40% of Mexico’s GDP. However, its US$400bn exports to the US are smaller than China’s almost US$600bn1. The country is forecast to seize a further US$150bn of export value in the next five years. The US Inflation Reduction Act, which privileges companies producing electric vehicles in the US-Mexico-Canada free […]
New data hints rate hiking is far from over
market snapshot
Outlook for China: When one door opens…
Fast reading: The abandoning of China’s strict zero-Covid policy late last year and the announcement of a range of stimulus measures should drive a resurgence in outbound travel, an easing of global supply-chain pressures, and an increase in growth both domestically and more widely. Owing to its size and rapid development, China had been a major […]
Asia ex-Japan: helping clients outperform over the long-term
When investing for the long term, many people find it difficult to choose the right time to make inflows or outflows in a portfolio. They tend to rely on funds that have performed well to make inflows and therefore can be expected to perform better in the future. Conversely, if a fund performs poorly, net […]
Why the next five years belongs to US SMID
A shift from the winners of yesterday Having now entered a period of structurally higher interest rates, combined with potentially slower economic growth, investors should expect a shift away from the market leaders of the last decade. This process has already started; small and mid-cap stocks generated relative outperformance in 2022, while the NASDAQ 100 […]
360°, Q1 2023
Inflation, disinflation, inflection
The 10 themes that could make or break an EM renaissance
Theme one: Opportunities beyond re-opening China is at a critical juncture and faces three principal challenges: geopolitical rivalry with the US, the ongoing fallout from Covid-19, and issues in its property sector. These huge challenges will test the resolve of the Beijing leadership. Figure 1: China fixed asset investment (%, year on year) Source: Bloomberg, […]
Direction of rates hangs over equities rebound
Market snapshot
Global Emerging Markets: Outlook 2023
Fast reading While emerging markets underperformed developed markets in 2022, if you strip out China, emerging markets actually performed in line with the developed world. We expect emerging markets to bounce back in 2023. In addition to trough valuation and light investor positioning, the growth differential between emerging and developed markets is set to expand […]
Fiorino: Many banks, multiple outcomes
Anything can happen. Or, according to one interpretation of quantum mechanics, everything that can happen, does happen. The so-called ‘many worlds’ postulate, first floated in the 1950s by then US physics PhD student, Hugh Everett III, resolves a fundamental enigma of the ‘wave function’ – the mathematical expression of how a quantum system, such as […]
