Spreads, value and our credit outlook
RJ: In terms of relative value and credit spreads in 2026, what do you think the outlook is? Bobby: I think most market participants would agree that spreads are pretty tight. That’s been the market mantra for some time. It’s one thing to say that overall market levels are tight, but within sectors – and […]
The resilience premium
The World Economic Forum’s 2026 Risks Report is unequivocal: geo-economic confrontation now tops the global risk agenda. Governments are increasingly weaponising trade, finance, technology, sanctions, and supply chains – a decisive shift away from the post‑Cold‑War era of open markets and predictable rules. Markets have become arenas of strategic competition, not cooperation, driving heavier defence […]
Powell takes a stand
On Sunday we learned that US prosecutors had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about his testimony before Congress last summer over a US$2.5bn renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. In response, after years of de-escalation and professionalism, Chair Powell released a strong and straightforward video where he characterised the subpoenas […]
Treasury yields reflect a curious equilibrium to start the year
As we begin the new year, actual and implied volatilities in the US Treasury market have fallen to four-year lows, returning to levels that were common before the pandemic. Of course, the last four years included a number of disruptors: the inflation surge to multi-decade highs; the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rapid tightening to suppress inflation; the Silicon […]
Meet the Manager: Nick Tripodes
My name is Nick Tripodes, and I’m a Portfolio Manager and Head of the Low Duration Structured Products team. We are responsible for all portfolio management of active cash and low duration products, and investment research and structured products including asset-backed securities (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). How have you seen the firm evolve […]
GEMs ESG Materiality, H2 2025
Fast reading To illustrate our approach to climate-adjusted valuations in more detail, we share our assessment on TSMC, the Taiwanese semiconductor group facing climate-related cost pressures from carbon taxes increasing electricity and raw material costs. We also provide our reflections from COP30, having been on the ground in Brazil, attending COP Finance events and engaging […]
Why our improved credit outlook explains tight spread levels
360°, Q4
The Bull, the Bear and the Bubble
The question of whether we are in an ‘AI bubble’ or not is one of great concern to many of our clients. Recently the phrase, “is the stock market a bubble,” has been searched more than any time in history on Google and, yes, ChatGPT. The word “bubble” alone seems designed to send chills up […]
Will EMD outperformance continue in 2026?
EMD Q4 report
Return to quality
Chartology
