Trump, again
With the second Trump administration now a month old (not a short month!), I’m devoting this special issue to the new president’s plan of action and the implications for the markets. History For analogy to the present day, one must look to the nineteenth century. Trump’s House majority is the smallest since the Civil War, […]
The Year of the Snake: Our outlook for China in 2025
What’s next for Chinese markets? As we mark the start of the Chinese Lunar New Year, and the Year of the Snake, investors are asking: what is next for Chinese equities? Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was initially taken as positive news for US markets and negative for China; the MSCI China […]
China’s ‘Sputnik moment’
On 4 October, 1957, the Soviet Union successfully launched Sputnik 1, the world’s first artificial satellite. The launch ushered in a new era of political, military, technological, and scientific developments, and started the US-USSR space race. On 20 January, Chinese technology start-up DeepSeek released two large language models (LLM), including DeepSeek-R1, a partly open-source large […]
We can live with this
The S&P 500 has been sideways for a while now, something often seen in the weeks after a presidential inauguration; only half of the names in the index currently trade above their 50-day moving average. For the market to exit this period of consolidation with any bullish conviction, that fraction will need to increase. The market […]
Volatility, velocity and vigilantes
After a choppy start to the year, and a rally through much of Q2 and Q3, the Bloomberg US Aggregate ultimately gave up a portion of year-to-date (YTD) return in Q4, while remaining modestly positive for the year at 1.25%. Growing investor expectations of a Donald Trump win fuelled a risk rally in the weeks […]
How Trump’s ambitious economic agenda might unfold
From Inauguration Day into Memorial Day We expect Trump to address immigration by securing the border, deporting convicted criminals who had entered the country illegally, increasing legal immigration and creating a path to citizenship for non-documented, yet gainfully employed people. His threat of tariffs has alarmed many, but it is likely a negotiating tactic. The […]
Tariffs on the table
Video transcript How do you think tariffs might affect international equities in 2025? Tariffs are going to affect international equities in 2025, primarily because of uncertainty. The uncertainty that obviously comes with the recent Trump election is that the level of tariffs is going to mean that, at the end of the day, we are […]
Fixed income: New challenges for the easing cycle
2025 Outlook
Will the equities rally continue in 2025?
2025 Outlook
Global reverberations of the US election
Two weeks out, the storm that was the US election has given way to clearer skies—and more clarity on how the Trump administration might turn campaign promises into policy. Our CIO for Global Equities Stephen Auth recently outlined how the issues of tax cuts, higher tariffs, reduced regulations, smaller government, immigration reform and resolution of […]
