Our outlook for India: The view from the GEMs desk
The excitement about India has resulted in rich valuations. How are you thinking about the valuation of Indian markets and how are you positioned? On valuations, with any metric we look at, the Indian market does screen to be expensive – but we have to think about why investors pay a premium for India, and […]
Emerging market debt: the strong recovery continues
EMD report Q1 2024
Markets heed data, not Fed Speak
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been talking himself hoarse lately. Ever since he failed to push back against the market’s overly ebullient expectations for rate cuts following the December 2023 policy meeting, he has told anyone who’d listen the Fed isn’t ready to declare victory over inflation. His press conference in January this […]
Sun setting on the tightening cycle
A busy month of news pertaining to the liquidity markets ended on a high note when the US Federal Reserve maintained the target fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50% and pushed the probable first rate hike to late spring at the earliest. Degrees of confidence US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell returned to the word “confidence” […]
Corporate fundamentals: Opportunities and challenges within credit dispersion
Credit fundamentals continued to modestly weaken towards the end of 2023, with both leverage and interest coverage metrics trending towards long-term averages from the lows and highs respectively witnessed a year ago, as shown in Figures 1 and 2 below. Figure 1: Leverage increasing towards long-term averages Source: BofA, as at 31 December 2023. Figure […]
Where are the best opportunities at the short end of the curve?
Short Term Investments Committee
Election watch
2024 Outlook
Not your average credit cycle
Three things we learned: Issuers are preparing for a new normal. Nothing’s written in stone but higher for longer has already profoundly affected credit market fundamentals. Dispersion could be a central theme of 2024. Short-term money markets have not witnessed significant outflows… yet. Expectations are for asset growth to continue into 2024 but will be driven by institutional […]
Expert insights on the short end of the curve
Short Term Investments Committee
The tiger that lost its roar: the mystery of South Korea’s underperforming equities
Chartology
