Sticks and stones
It was only a matter of when, not if, the White House would harass the Federal Reserve again. Chair Jerome Powell got a short respite as President Donald Trump reiterated he doesn’t intend to fire him, despite constantly demanding lower interest rates. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced yesterday it had held rates […]
Bonds do their job during the first 100 days of uncertainty
The month of April demonstrated the complexity of capital market relationships. After a solid first quarter, where US Treasuries offered some positive returns to counter struggling stocks, the volatility shock created by the 2 April ‘Liberation Day’ announcement and President Donald Trump’s later attack on Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell temporarily took things in another direction. […]
Investieren nach dem „Liberation Day”
Deutsches Transkript Seit dem Liberation Day ist nun fast ein Monat vergangen, und es ist an der Zeit, darüber nachzudenken, was dies bedeutet. Ich schlage vor, die kurzfristigen Konsequenzen und die damit verbundene Volatilität zu ignorieren. Dies ist schwer vorherzusagen. Ich rate auch davon ab, den politischen Aspekt überzubewerten, da die Menschen unterschiedliche Ansichten vertreten. […]
The greenback is singing the blues
The hurly-burly in Washington has the potential to reshape the global political and economic landscape, but will it knock the US dollar from its preeminent perch? Some are viewing the plunge of the dollar index since President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs as a sign it will. The argument itself conflates two concepts. One is that the […]
The curious case of rising US Treasury yields
US Treasury yields increased sharply after falling leading up to and immediately after the 2 April tariffs announcement. The tariff reprieve on 9 April initially quelled the surge, but rates remain elevated. The surprise is that typically when global risks increase, the flight to quality trade ensues – US Treasury yields go down, prices go […]
Market mayhem bolsters appeal of liquidity products
Money market funds sometimes get a bad rap – they can be viewed as boring. Across the whole investment universe, investors have a vast array of choices: any number of asset classes that seek to balance risk with reward and offer the potential for higher returns. All money markets aim to do is provide a […]
Die Konturen einer neuen Handelswelt
Die kurzfristigen Bewegungen bei Aktien und Währungen haben die Märkte in einen Schockzustand versetzt und Investoren bemühen sich nun, die Zollnachrichten einzuordnen und das relative Wirtschaftswachstum sowie Gewinnschätzungen und den Marktzugang neu zu bewerten. Obwohl der Zollüberhang nicht verschwunden ist, sind wir dem Anfang vom Ende bereits viel näher. Die totale Marktunsicherheit wurde nun zumindest […]
Avoiding the thorns
US President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs Wednesday in the Rose Garden, but they are unlikely to come up roses for the US and global economies. At a base of 10%, with much higher rates on many other countries, the tariffs are far more sweeping than expected. While most of the world is scrambling to […]
Two ways of being wrong
There are at least two ways of being wrong in investing, and each has its own means of mitigation. One is to be flat-out wrong. Perhaps the most spectacular example of this (among many contenders) may be found in the hapless words of Professor Irving Fisher, a distinguished economist at Yale, who announced in mid-October […]
Worst case
[Editor’s note: Federated Hermes investment professionals are reviewing the Trump administration’s tariff announcement and will be providing further commentary in the coming days.] Every email in my inbox this morning starts with some form of, “this is worse than the worst-case scenario.” And, well, it’s hard to disagree. Going into the press conference, the consensus […]
