PRESS CENTRE

Federated Hermes forecasts what lies ahead for the rest of 2021 The investment floor share outlooks for the rest of the year 17/06/2021 - Eoin Murray

Economic Outlook: can things ‘only get better’? In his latest Economic Outlook, Senior Economic Adviser Neil Williams summarises his expectations for the global economy. 08/04/2021

Response to Federal Reserve meeting 18/03/2021 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Three wishes for tomorrow’s UK Budget Eoin Murray, Head of Investment, shares his three wishes for tomorrow's UK Budget 02/03/2021 - Eoin Murray

Under Pressure? 5 dynamics shaping the inflation outlook Silvia Dall'Angelo, Senior Economist, discusses the five dynamics shaping her inflation outlook for 2021. 26/01/2021 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Economic Outlook: 2021 and beyond - a slow and winding road to economic recovery In his latest Economic Outlook, Senior Economic Adviser Neil Williams summarises his expectations for the global economy in five main points. 15/12/2020

Looking into 2021 with Federated Hermes Senior management, the investment floor, EOS and our responsibility office share their outlooks for next year. 19/11/2020 - Saker Nusseibeh, CBE

Federated Hermes' latest on the US Elections Managers across our investment floor in London and Pittsburgh comment on the US Election 05/11/2020 - Eoin Murray

Federated Hermes comments ahead of US Election Federated Hermes comments ahead of US Election 28/10/2020 - Eoin Murray

Economic Outlook: Will the debt matter? Neil Williams examines the impact that various pandemic-related stimulus packages have had on both global government debt and the efficacy of monetary and fiscal tools available to policy-makers. 23/09/2020

Economic Outlook: will the debt matter? The US and UK are already running highly negative interest rates, when QE is considered, according to a report by the International business of Federated Hermes. 11/06/2020

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Keeping the punch bowl filled In hard macro terms, the tragic spread of the coronavirus provides another argument for keeping policy rates close to the floor, and the ‘punch bowl’ of central-bank liquidity filled. 18/03/2020

Rising recessionary risks shifts focus to fiscal fallback options Monetary policy – which did the heavy lifting in the aftermath of the global financial crisis – has reached its limits. 10/06/2019 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Ahead of the Curve: Pushing the dovish pivot - the US inflation story "Add a short extract from this post, including key words." 25/02/2019 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Light in the darkness - a brighter 2019 for emerging markets? Emerging markets contended with a challenging backdrop in 2018, amid less accommodative global financial conditions, slowing economic growth in China and fraught US-China trade relations. 28/01/2019 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

How tech and female tenacity could shake up US politics (and the investment industry, too) 05/11/2018 - Eoin Murray

They Walk Among Us – The Extended Cycle Of Zombie Firms 31/10/2018 - Eoin Murray

How markets are missing the biggest populist movement of all 29/10/2018 - Saker Nusseibeh, CBE

Escalating trade war is biggest risk for world economy The trade tariffs – and corresponding retaliatory measures – implemented are so far limited. In total, the value of affected trade now amounts to about $150bn globally, or 0.8% of overall world exports. However, adding up all the measures currently under discussion and assuming impacted countries retaliate commensurately, the amount of targeted trade could quickly rise to more than $1tn, or 6% of global exports. In her latest Ahead of the Curve, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment Management, argues an escalation of protectionist measures evolving into a trade war could represent the biggest challenge to the world economy. 13/08/2018 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Hermes comments on the BoE rate hike: MPC may be putting as much store on tactics as strategy Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser, Hermes Investment Management: “After softer activity data, the BoE's rate-hike today, their second in this cycle, may raise some eyebrows. However, it shouldn't be seen as heralding a swift move upwards. “As with their first rise last November, the Bank's tone again reflects caution. Suspecting that its room to manoeuvre will become more constrained as Prime Minister May seeks a Brexit Treaty in 2019, it may be putting as much store on tactics as long-term strategy. Even if there is a deal next year, it would most likely only be a precursor to sorting out the various legal and trade systems by December 2020. “Motivating today's move will be the MPC’s assessment of very little slack left in the economy, and building excess demand. It will also be hoping that spring’s pay settlements data have been strong enough to help validate the traditional link with low unemployment. “Yet, their window to hike may become smaller in 2019, and even close by 2020. UK growth has almost ground to a halt - from the top of the G5 quarter-on-quarter growth-table in H2 2016 (just after the referendum) to the bottom by H2 2017 - despite a softer fiscal stance.” 02/08/2018

Eurozone 'Misery Indices' - converging on the strongest once again To test whether the macro strains in the eurozone periphery are still holding back the core members, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, updates his ‘Misery Indices’ (MIs) out to 2019. He finds that, with macro-economic convergence between euro members next year set to be the strongest since 2007, they should be on a better footing to weather their next challenge - linked perhaps to Italy’s political risk. Off-the-wall methods for proxying economic hardship include an index adding together a country’s unemployment and inflation rates. Though hardly scientific, they become especially flawed in a low inflation or deflationary world when the components may move in opposite directions. We offer a more logical alternative to this, and to GDP estimates, which are produced with more of a time lag and frequently revised. 25/07/2018

Fixing Big Tech – saving the FANGs from themselves Despite phenomenal long-term share price performance, Big Tech has been besieged from all sides – governments and regulators have been forced to increase scrutiny, investors are questioning the future economic consequences, while consumers question the FANGs’ social licence to operate. In response to the major issues faced by Big Tech, Sickly Tech, a report by Eoin Murray, Head of Investment at Hermes Investment Management, raises deep questions about Big Tech’s future, the risks for investors, and outlines the necessary steps to drive reform. Even the market ruckus earlier this year failed to derail the trajectory of the Big Tech leaders. Instead, the market witnessed dramatic outperformance by Big Tech and the FANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google), which benefit from the ongoing growth in internet commerce. Indeed, if the FANGs (plus Nvidia and Microsoft) are stripped out, the S&P 500 has fallen over the year to date - such is the influence of their phenomenal momentum. Even from a global perspective, the FANGs are a vital positive story, with global markets overall having fallen slightly in 2018. 10/07/2018 - Eoin Murray

Is it time for investors to prepare for the ‘worst of times’? "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; […] it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair." Dickens’ famous opening words in The Tale of Two Cities could set the scene for the current market and macroeconomic climate – a world of latent volatility; where contradictory extremes loom as equally likely realities; where the slightest change in political winds could send events either way. Is it to be a time of inflation or disinflation, liquidity or illiquidity, growth or slump? The dramatic return of share-price volatility in the first quarter of the year indicates some plot issues that may be resolved in 2018, but others remain hidden in the subtext. In the latest Hermes Market Risk Insights report, Spring of hope, or winter of despair? Investors face Dickensian conditions, Eoin Murray, Head of Investment at Hermes Investment Management, explores the six key risks facing investors in extreme financial conditions. 19/06/2018 - Eoin Murray

Hermes: Overly protective In his latest Quarterly Economic Outlook, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, argues that markets are still taking a ‘glass half full’ view of the macro outlook, with little real consideration of the new risk emerging. Until now, this has made sense, with speculation the US would open the fiscal box having justified ‘reflation trades’. However, while better for growth (see chart 1), markets are ignoring the darker cloud looming. Rather than financial distrust, we may need to brace for political distrust with the threat of beggar-thy neighbour policies - from the US to anti-European populism - rising. 2018 could be a ‘year of two halves’... In which case, 2018 could be a year of two halves, where stimulus- euphoria gradually gives way to stagflation concern. Helpfully, the trade-off is that policy rates stay lower than many expect. As chart 2 attests, the world’s appetite for international trade has, as a share of GDP, more than doubled in the past 50 years. Nevertheless, without care, the unhelpful jigsaw piece of retaliatory protectionism from the 1930s, might come crashing into place. In 1930, it was triggered by the Smoot-Hawley reforms that raised US tariffs to up to 20% on over 20,000 imported goods. This hit the US’s relatively small number of trading partners, most notably Canada and Europe, and prolonged the depression. 15/06/2018