The wall of worry gets another brick
Markets generally need walls of worry to climb gradually higher, and this weekend US equity markets received another brick. Add that to the collection we have been watching, particularly AI disruption, valuation concerns around asset-light businesses, private credit, renewed tariff uncertainty, and the direction of inflation. While the war in Iran seems likely to end […]
Market Snapshot
Escalating Iran war rocks markets
Has the floor been raised for the money markets?
There are essentially two ways an extraordinary development can play out: reverting to the mean or creating a new status quo. In finance, the latter is rare, but we believe 2026 is shaping up to be just that for the money markets. Many would agree that the collective performance of stable value products since mid-2022 […]
Market Snapshot
Nvidia: the canary that didn’t sing?
Looking beyond mainstream bonds
What is your economic outlook, and how has that informed your view of credit spreads? The economy is actually doing well. in fact, I expect this year to be even better than last year. We believe GDP growth may be around 3% this year. There are a few reasons for that: less impact from tariffs, […]
The good news and the bad news
We are six weeks into the year and, at a high level, the US investment landscape is unfolding largely as expected. The macro data continues to support our Goldilocks outlook: above-consensus GDP growth, improving productivity, moderating inflation and a gradual decline of interest rates. As earnings season draws to a close, analysts have begun to […]
Market Snapshot
AI fears overshadow strong Q4 earnings
AI optimism, not exuberance
Read More Watch now Listen now Read More Watch now Listen now Read More Watch now Listen now What is our long-term view on the AI bubble, and how does this filter into our broader economic view? There’s a lot of concern as to whether AI is in a bubble. We don’t classify it that […]
Global Emerging Markets Equity: Outlook 2026
Behind the EM rebound
China: The year of the fire horse
As we approach Chinese New Year and welcome the Year of the Fire Horse, it feels like the right moment to step back and think about where China stands, not just as an investment destination, but as a market going through one of the most important transitions in its modern economic history. The past few […]
