The contours of a new trade landscape
Near-term equity and currency moves represent a short-term shock to the markets as the investment community digests the tariff news and reassesses relative economic growth, earnings estimates, and access to markets. While the tariff overhang has not disappeared, we are now much closer to the beginning of the end. Total market uncertainty has now been […]
Avoiding the thorns
US President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs Wednesday in the Rose Garden, but they are unlikely to come up roses for the US and global economies. At a base of 10%, with much higher rates on many other countries, the tariffs are far more sweeping than expected. While most of the world is scrambling to […]
Two ways of being wrong
There are at least two ways of being wrong in investing, and each has its own means of mitigation. One is to be flat-out wrong. Perhaps the most spectacular example of this (among many contenders) may be found in the hapless words of Professor Irving Fisher, a distinguished economist at Yale, who announced in mid-October […]
Worst case
[Editor’s note: Federated Hermes investment professionals are reviewing the Trump administration’s tariff announcement and will be providing further commentary in the coming days.] Every email in my inbox this morning starts with some form of, “this is worse than the worst-case scenario.” And, well, it’s hard to disagree. Going into the press conference, the consensus […]
Trade. Reimagined.
market snapshot
Self-fulfilling prophecy?
The S&P 500 soared 20% from early August into mid-February, to a record high of 6,147, as investors enthusiastically embraced the prospect of more constructive fiscal policy plans out of the new Trump administration. But that upbeat mood has clearly soured over the past six weeks, as many of Trump’s plans, particularly the implementation of […]
UK looks to shore-up finances amid weak outlook
market snapshot
A wary Fed
The markets can be sure of one thing about the members of the Federal Open Market Committee: they are uncertain. During his press conference after they met yesterday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell used the word liberally with respect to the outlook, the impact of trade policies, forecasting and the balance of risks. In […]
German spending bill bolsters Europe rebound
market snapshot
The emergence of Gen-Z
Chartology
