Why the next five years belongs to US SMID
A shift from the winners of yesterday Having now entered a period of structurally higher interest rates, combined with potentially slower economic growth, investors should expect a shift away from the market leaders of the last decade. This process has already started; small and mid-cap stocks generated relative outperformance in 2022, while the NASDAQ 100 […]
360°, Q1 2023
Inflation, disinflation, inflection
The 10 themes that could make or break an EM renaissance
Theme one: Opportunities beyond re-opening China is at a critical juncture and faces three principal challenges: geopolitical rivalry with the US, the ongoing fallout from Covid-19, and issues in its property sector. These huge challenges will test the resolve of the Beijing leadership. Figure 1: China fixed asset investment (%, year on year) Source: Bloomberg, […]
Direction of rates hangs over equities rebound
Market snapshot
Global Emerging Markets: Outlook 2023
Fast reading While emerging markets underperformed developed markets in 2022, if you strip out China, emerging markets actually performed in line with the developed world. We expect emerging markets to bounce back in 2023. In addition to trough valuation and light investor positioning, the growth differential between emerging and developed markets is set to expand […]
Fiorino: Many banks, multiple outcomes
Anything can happen. Or, according to one interpretation of quantum mechanics, everything that can happen, does happen. The so-called ‘many worlds’ postulate, first floated in the 1950s by then US physics PhD student, Hugh Everett III, resolves a fundamental enigma of the ‘wave function’ – the mathematical expression of how a quantum system, such as […]
Asia ex-Japan Equity: Letter to Investors
Outperforming us over the long term
Extinguishing the flame: Has inflation peaked?
market snapshot
European stocks rally as recession fears recede
market snapshot
Fixed income rebounds on expectations inflation has peaked
market snapshot
