Is global high yield a short duration market now?
The duration of the global high yield (GHY) market is below its long-term average and quite a distance from its peak. Figure 1 shows duration at around three years, which is by far the lowest it has ever been. This compares to a long-term average of just over four years. This 25% decline in duration […]
Which indices have surprised on the upside?
Chartology
360°, H2 2025
How not to be a deer caught in the ‘headlines’
The AI toolbox
Video transcript At MDT, we’ve been a big believer in AI and machine learning for a long time, and we have long integrated machine learning into our investment process. Our decision trees can be a powerful way to produce alpha forecasts while enabling us to understand and explain the rationale behind every trade. We believe that in making forecasts […]
When risk is underpriced, quality is all the more valuable
High yield is all about risk and reward – and lately risk isn’t being priced appropriately. We remain defensive in our high yield positioning for two reasons, one macro in nature while the other involves dynamics within the market itself. What they have in common is an underpricing of risk and a need to focus on […]
New name, same philosophy
(Re)introducing: Global SMID Equity Engagement*
The balancing act continues
The US Treasury market has been caught in a narrow range lately, confined by data portraying a resilient economy and some signs of tariff inflation passthrough that grabs the attention of a patient Federal Reserve (Fed). Current expectations are that the US economy continues to expand, albeit at diminished underlying rates as consumer spending growth has slowed, […]
What’s next for Asia ex-Japan?
Video transcript What is your outlook for the rest of the year for Asia ex-Japan equity? Our outlook for China for the rest of the year has been slightly complicated by what has happened year to date. At the beginning of the year, we were very bullish on China and Korea, and less so on […]
Summertime…but will the Fed be easing?
Work/life balance is a challenge for investors, what with 24-hour-a-day global business news coverage and a bevy of budgets, tariffs, geopolitics and related data to consider. Although summer is still a time when market participants take some time off, it’s also a good time to consider recent trends and where markets are now. Both equity […]
Signs of a growing deficit attention disorder
In investment parlance, we like to talk in quarters, but the first half of 2025 can really be divided into three distinct periods. The first two months of the year were relatively quiet, with modest movements in interest rates and spreads as the new administration went about setting its agendas. March and the first half […]
