Nearshoring opportunities brighten Mexico’s outlook
Fast reading: Manufacturing exports account for 40% of Mexico’s GDP. However, its US$400bn exports to the US are smaller than China’s almost US$600bn1. The country is forecast to seize a further US$150bn of export value in the next five years. The US Inflation Reduction Act, which privileges companies producing electric vehicles in the US-Mexico-Canada free […]
Outlook for China: When one door opens…
Fast reading: The abandoning of China’s strict zero-Covid policy late last year and the announcement of a range of stimulus measures should drive a resurgence in outbound travel, an easing of global supply-chain pressures, and an increase in growth both domestically and more widely. Owing to its size and rapid development, China had been a major […]
Why the next five years belongs to US SMID
A shift from the winners of yesterday Having now entered a period of structurally higher interest rates, combined with potentially slower economic growth, investors should expect a shift away from the market leaders of the last decade. This process has already started; small and mid-cap stocks generated relative outperformance in 2022, while the NASDAQ 100 […]
The 10 themes that could make or break an EM renaissance
Theme one: Opportunities beyond re-opening China is at a critical juncture and faces three principal challenges: geopolitical rivalry with the US, the ongoing fallout from Covid-19, and issues in its property sector. These huge challenges will test the resolve of the Beijing leadership. Figure 1: China fixed asset investment (%, year on year) Source: Bloomberg, […]
Direction of rates hangs over equities rebound
Market snapshot
Fiorino: Many banks, multiple outcomes
Anything can happen. Or, according to one interpretation of quantum mechanics, everything that can happen, does happen. The so-called ‘many worlds’ postulate, first floated in the 1950s by then US physics PhD student, Hugh Everett III, resolves a fundamental enigma of the ‘wave function’ – the mathematical expression of how a quantum system, such as […]
Extinguishing the flame: Has inflation peaked?
market snapshot
European stocks rally as recession fears recede
market snapshot
Fixed income rebounds on expectations inflation has peaked
market snapshot
ABS issuance: Why so low?
Chart of the month
