The contours of a new trade landscape
Near-term equity and currency moves represent a short-term shock to the markets as the investment community digests the tariff news and reassesses relative economic growth, earnings estimates, and access to markets. While the tariff overhang has not disappeared, we are now much closer to the beginning of the end. Total market uncertainty has now been […]
Avoiding the thorns
US President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs Wednesday in the Rose Garden, but they are unlikely to come up roses for the US and global economies. At a base of 10%, with much higher rates on many other countries, the tariffs are far more sweeping than expected. While most of the world is scrambling to […]
Two ways of being wrong
There are at least two ways of being wrong in investing, and each has its own means of mitigation. One is to be flat-out wrong. Perhaps the most spectacular example of this (among many contenders) may be found in the hapless words of Professor Irving Fisher, a distinguished economist at Yale, who announced in mid-October […]
Worst case
[Editor’s note: Federated Hermes investment professionals are reviewing the Trump administration’s tariff announcement and will be providing further commentary in the coming days.] Every email in my inbox this morning starts with some form of, “this is worse than the worst-case scenario.” And, well, it’s hard to disagree. Going into the press conference, the consensus […]
A wary Fed
The markets can be sure of one thing about the members of the Federal Open Market Committee: they are uncertain. During his press conference after they met yesterday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell used the word liberally with respect to the outlook, the impact of trade policies, forecasting and the balance of risks. In […]
German spending bill bolsters Europe rebound
market snapshot
The emergence of Gen-Z
Chartology
Tariff tensions shake Wall Street
market snapshot
America’s allies shore up their defences
International investors with an eye on the news will have been aware of some seismic shifts lately. At the recent Munich Security Conference, US Vice President Vance made it clear to the European NATO nations that they will have to do more to strengthen their own defence capabilities and security. Next came the much-discussed White […]
Strapped to the mast
Video transcript Overall, our outlook on equity markets around the world – from the US, Europe, and even emerging markets – is pretty positive on a two-year, even a three-year view. The issue is that in the near term there’s a lot of ‘sausage making’ and noise that could distract us and cause some volatility. We […]
