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Authors

  • Eoin Murray
    While risk assets stabilised over the last quarter, the threat of volatility remains ever present
  • Eoin Murray
    Investors scanning the risk universe observed traces of volatility in February and then calm skies until the end of the third quarter. The scenario has changed, with equity markets flaring in October and November.
  • Eoin Murray
    Investors scanning the risk universe observed traces of volatility in February and then calm skies until the end of the third quarter. The scenario has changed, with equity markets flaring in October and November. Seasoned asset-gazers may not be surprised – in our view, market pressures have been building for some time amid slowing growth and trade tensions – and we continue to recommend that investors consider the full gamut of risks and commit to a long-term view as they chart a course ahead.
  • Eoin Murray
    Trump, tariffs, trade wars, terrorism and tech: a decade on from peak global financial crisis, this is where we are today. The more important question for investors, however, is where to next.
  • Eoin Murray
    Risk is amorphous, creating investment opportunities and threats to capital at each stage of the cycle. In response, investors must watch for familiar patterns and new disruptions amid streams of financial indicators. Models based on statistical history can serve as useful, if inexact, guides to the future. But we need to use all the tools at hand, going beyond number crunching to consider geopolitical tensions and sustainability concerns, to separate meaningful signals from the noise. We recommend tracking the following six indicators to recognise risk in its current form – and identify where opportunities lie.
  • Eoin Murray
    US author John Steinbeck championed the ability of individuals to adapt to new environments. Investors should be similarly adaptive. Volatility may have declined in Q2 after a jumpy start to the year, but our forward-looking indicators suggest that markets are tiring at the end of a long cycle: US equity valuations are stretched relative to history and asset-class correlations are primed for decoupling. Markets are vulnerable to shocks, and investors should be ready for new colours and fire.
  • Eoin Murray
    Dickensian conditions Q2 2018 Risk is amorphous, creating investment opportunities and threats to capital at each stage of the cycle. In response, investors must watch for familiar patterns and new disruptions amid streams of financial indicators. Models based on statistical history can serve as useful, if inexact, guides. But we need to use all the tools at hand, going beyond number crunching to consider geopolitical tensions and sustainability concerns, to separate meaningful signals from the noise. We recommend tracking the following six indicators to recognise risk in its current form – and identify where opportunities lie.
  • Eoin Murray
    Charles Dickens’ famous lines set the scene for a world of latent volatility, where contradictory extremes loom as equally likely realities and the slightest change in the political winds could send events either way. This encapsulates the bipolar nature of investors in 2018 to date, as they seek meaning in conflicting signals: will it be a time of inflation or disinflation, liquidity or illiquidity, growth or slump? In this issue of Market Risk Insights, we analyse key investment metrics in order to help investors navigate these Dickensian conditions.
  • Eoin Murray
    Investors shrugged off the political shocks of 2016 with stunning nonchalance: the immediate effects of Brexit lasted less than a week, the election of Donald Trump was dealt with in a matter of days and the Italian constitutional referendum was forgotten in less than three hours. Risk assets, it seems, are all the rage (again). The FTSE and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices reached record highs this month, as the latter passed 20,000 points, an allegedly significant amount, despite the Federal Reserve hiking rates in December.
  • Eoin Murray
    “He who goes gently, goes safely; he who goes safely, goes far.” Joseph Thomson – geologist and explorer In cinematic terms, the third quarter offered investors more tension-building moments than over-the-top action scenes. As our previous Market Risk Insights suggested was likely, the three-month period played out against a backdrop of apparent calm, disturbed only by brief spikes of volatility and risk aversion.