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  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    Your guide to this week's big economic events.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The UK has not yet left the EU and the outlook for its future relationship with the bloc is uncertain.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    Is the trade war disruptive, or is it merely accelerating trends already underway?
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    Is the trade war disruptive, or is it merely accelerating trends already underway?
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    Sterling has had a rough ride over the last few weeks, hitting a 33-month low – against a trade-weighted basket of currencies – on Tuesday 30th July. Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment Management, looks at the downward pressure on the pound that has been driven by increasing odds of a no-deal Brexit following the installation of the new UK government led by PM Boris Johnson.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The current US economic expansion that began in 2009 will mark its ten-year anniversary in June.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The stakes are high for elections to the European Parliament in May.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    Emerging-market economies experienced a year of tumult in 2018 amid less accommodative global financial conditions, slowing economic growth in China and fraught US-China trade relations.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
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  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The trade tariffs – and corresponding retaliatory measures – implemented are so far limited. In total, the value of affected trade now amounts to about $150bn globally, or 0.8% of overall world exports. However, adding up all the measures currently under discussion and assuming impacted countries retaliate commensurately, the amount of targeted trade could quickly rise to more than $1tn, or 6% of global exports. In her latest Ahead of the Curve, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment Management, argues an escalation of protectionist measures evolving into a trade war could represent the biggest challenge to the world economy.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    The tug-of-war between positive economic fundamentals and the protectionist policies that threaten to undermine them has dominated the macroeconomic story so far this year. Regrettably, this narrative is likely to continue unabated for the remainder of the year. Following the synchronised upswing of 2017, the global economy stuttered at the beginning of the year. Global growth lost momentum in the first quarter, in part reflecting special factors such as the impact from adverse weather conditions. In recent months, economic growth has rebounded to levels that prevailed last year, when global growth came in at 3.7% (see Chart 1). What’s more, global growth has become less synchronised: the US economy has continued to accelerate, while economic growth has slowed in the rest of the world. This creates a fragile backdrop, in which trade tensions – that are likely to continue to brew in the run-up to the November US mid-term elections – could become a catalyst for a sharp and broad-based slowdown.
  • Silvia Dall’Angelo
    While Italy’s short-term economic outlook includes some positive elements, material downside risks loom amid high policy uncertainty. In her latest Ahead of the Curve, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment Management, argues the Italian situation is a symptom of deep-rooted malaise and requires a credible and concerted response. Italy’s recent political imbroglio reignited the debate over the European Union’s (EU) future and the viability of the European single currency within its current institutional framework. While the situation has normalised, the landscape in Italy remains fragile. It is emblematic of the challenges the Eurozone is facing in a new political era. This new political backdrop emphasises national sovereignty, has an inward-looking approach and favours centrifugal forces, posing hurdles to European integration. Effects of the crisis Italy’s double-dip recession – the global financial crisis in 2008, followed by the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in 2012/13 – was particularly severe, as the country was ill-equipped to deal with it in the first place. The typically short-lived political cycle – with 65 administrations at the helm since World War II – has favoured wasteful public spending and quick fixes, rather than long-sighted structural reforms. In this context, public debt grew quickly, thereby reducing the fiscal space available at times of crisis.