The world woke up to the potential of AI on 30 November 2022 when OpenAI released an early demo of ChatGPT.
But breakthroughs of this nature seldom come out of nowhere. They are the result of decades of painstaking research and development, backed by investment from people seeing its potential.
Let’s break the ChatGPT moment down.
The GPT in ChatGPT stands for ‘Generative Pre-trained Transformers’. GPT models give applications the ability to create human-like text and content and answer questions in a conversational manner known as generative AI.
The models are based on the deep-learning transformer architecture which provided a breakthrough moment itself when first revealed in 2017.
AI gaining ‘general-purpose technology’ status
Having made such a huge impact, AI is now increasingly being labelled as another form of ‘GPT’ – ‘general-purpose technologies’, a term first coined by economist Robert Solow in the 1980s which refers to a set of technologies that have a wide range of applications.
GPTs tend to be disruptive, create new industries and sectors, and can lead to major changes in the way that people live and work – think of breakthroughs such as steam power, electricity, and computers themselves.
Case studies in industry innovation
The steam-driven combustion engine which heralded the industrial age took agriculture and manufacturing away from hundreds of years of reliance on natural resources and animals.
The light bulb, telegraph, telephone, radio, electric motor and consumer electronics all came into being thanks to electricity which powered an entirely new technological era, filling homes with refrigerators, washing machines and conveniences previously unimaginable.
As the industrial age gave way to the information age, Tim Berners-Lee’s invention of the World Wide Web in the early 1990s, coupled with the emergence of user-friendly web browsers and expanding networks, opened up the online world.
With this enhanced accessibility came a wave of disruption that paved the way for the rise of giant companies ranging from Amazon in e-commerce to Google in search. Every part of our lives – from travel to dating and entertainment – has changed beyond recognition from the pre-internet days.
Much of this has been enabled by an exponential rise of computing power, able to process, analyse and learn from the enormous volumes of data thrown up in these transactions.
AI is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the internet, and the mobile phone. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.
The age of AI
AI promises to take this transformation of society a huge step further. Ever more powerful computer chips from companies such as Nvidia and the growing availability of cloud storage are combining to allow huge AI models to process, understand and interpret enormous amounts of data.
Previously unimaginable feats are now within reach. We are close to the point where AI can autonomously drive cars without human input, help discover new drugs to cure diseases and even halt the decline of endangered species.
Microsoft founder Bill Gates believes the development of AI ‘is as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the internet, and the mobile phone. Entire industries will reorient around it. Businesses will distinguish themselves by how well they use it.’
So while AI has been more than 70 years in the making, the opportunities it presents have only become tangible for most people very recently.
The McKinsey Institute believes that generative AI could increase global GDP by up to US$4.4tn annually.2
More than a moment
AI may well be one of mankind’s biggest and most ambitious projects, and just like with any other GPT, it’s going to spawn new industries and ignite growth across a host of sectors. Whatever field they operate in, companies will have to change how they work – just as they did when the internet arrived – or risk being left behind.
What’s clear is that AI is having more than a moment – rather, we are witnessing a momentous shift with the potential to provide a significant boost to economic growth, innovation and productivity.
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