Global Emerging Markets Equity: Outlook 2026
Behind the EM rebound
China: The year of the fire horse
As we approach Chinese New Year and welcome the Year of the Fire Horse, it feels like the right moment to step back and think about where China stands, not just as an investment destination, but as a market going through one of the most important transitions in its modern economic history. The past few […]
Rate realities await the next Fed Chair
Treasury yields rose modestly across the curve over the first month of 2026 with the US 10-year rising eight basis points (bps). Besides spiking Japanese bond yields and weakness in the dollar to start the year, the big news was US President Donald Trump’s 30 January nomination of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) veteran Kevin Warsh to replace Federal […]
A healthy correction underway
Although by the close on Thursday 5 February, the S&P 500 was down a mere 3% from its highs, let’s face it, things feel a lot worse. That is because the 3% loss is a combination of much bigger losses year-to-date in areas that had attracted the bulk of the assets – think Bitcoin (-49%), […]
Asia ex-Japan Equity: Letter to Investors
South Korean stocks rose 83% last year – now what do we do?
Living in the now
There’s no shortage of macro-economic factors for bond investors to consider as 2026 gets underway. Speculation about current surprises and future outcomes may get most of the attention, but lagging data has to be considered too. Lately, as I field what should be direct questions about fixed income markets, I find the need to cover […]
Spreads, value and our credit outlook
RJ: In terms of relative value and credit spreads in 2026, what do you think the outlook is? Bobby: I think most market participants would agree that spreads are pretty tight. That’s been the market mantra for some time. It’s one thing to say that overall market levels are tight, but within sectors – and […]
The resilience premium
The World Economic Forum’s 2026 Risks Report is unequivocal: geo-economic confrontation now tops the global risk agenda. Governments are increasingly weaponising trade, finance, technology, sanctions, and supply chains – a decisive shift away from the post‑Cold‑War era of open markets and predictable rules. Markets have become arenas of strategic competition, not cooperation, driving heavier defence […]
Powell takes a stand
On Sunday we learned that US prosecutors had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about his testimony before Congress last summer over a US$2.5bn renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. In response, after years of de-escalation and professionalism, Chair Powell released a strong and straightforward video where he characterised the subpoenas […]
Treasury yields reflect a curious equilibrium to start the year
As we begin the new year, actual and implied volatilities in the US Treasury market have fallen to four-year lows, returning to levels that were common before the pandemic. Of course, the last four years included a number of disruptors: the inflation surge to multi-decade highs; the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rapid tightening to suppress inflation; the Silicon […]
