Emerging markets debt: Clouds of political uncertainty set to lift
Fast reading In February, Bola Tinubu was declared the winner of Nigeria’s closely contested election. While the president-elect faces a range of economic challenges, improvements in Nigeria’s external accounts from the opening of the Dangote oil refinery provide cause for optimism. Parliamentary and presidential elections are scheduled to take place in Turkey on 14 May, […]
Home away from home
Chart of the month
Nearshoring opportunities brighten Mexico’s outlook
Fast reading: Manufacturing exports account for 40% of Mexico’s GDP. However, its US$400bn exports to the US are smaller than China’s almost US$600bn1. The country is forecast to seize a further US$150bn of export value in the next five years. The US Inflation Reduction Act, which privileges companies producing electric vehicles in the US-Mexico-Canada free […]
New data hints rate hiking is far from over
market snapshot
Outlook for China: When one door opens…
Fast reading: The abandoning of China’s strict zero-Covid policy late last year and the announcement of a range of stimulus measures should drive a resurgence in outbound travel, an easing of global supply-chain pressures, and an increase in growth both domestically and more widely. Owing to its size and rapid development, China had been a major […]
Asia ex-Japan: helping clients outperform over the long-term
When investing for the long term, many people find it difficult to choose the right time to make inflows or outflows in a portfolio. They tend to rely on funds that have performed well to make inflows and therefore can be expected to perform better in the future. Conversely, if a fund performs poorly, net […]
Why the next five years belongs to US SMID
A shift from the winners of yesterday Having now entered a period of structurally higher interest rates, combined with potentially slower economic growth, investors should expect a shift away from the market leaders of the last decade. This process has already started; small and mid-cap stocks generated relative outperformance in 2022, while the NASDAQ 100 […]
360°, Q1 2023
Inflation, disinflation, inflection
The 10 themes that could make or break an EM renaissance
Theme one: Opportunities beyond re-opening China is at a critical juncture and faces three principal challenges: geopolitical rivalry with the US, the ongoing fallout from Covid-19, and issues in its property sector. These huge challenges will test the resolve of the Beijing leadership. Figure 1: China fixed asset investment (%, year on year) Source: Bloomberg, […]
Direction of rates hangs over equities rebound
Market snapshot
