PRESS CENTRE

Economic Outlook: can things ‘only get better’? In his latest Economic Outlook, Senior Economic Adviser Neil Williams summarises his expectations for the global economy. 08/04/2021 - Neil Williams

Response to Federal Reserve meeting 18/03/2021 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Three wishes for tomorrow’s UK Budget Eoin Murray, Head of Investment, shares his three wishes for tomorrow's UK Budget 02/03/2021 - Eoin Murray

Under Pressure? 5 dynamics shaping the inflation outlook Silvia Dall'Angelo, Senior Economist, discusses the five dynamics shaping her inflation outlook for 2021. 26/01/2021 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Economic Outlook: 2021 and beyond - a slow and winding road to economic recovery In his latest Economic Outlook, Senior Economic Adviser Neil Williams summarises his expectations for the global economy in five main points. 15/12/2020 - Neil Williams

Looking into 2021 with Federated Hermes Senior management, the investment floor, EOS and our responsibility office share their outlooks for next year. 19/11/2020 - Saker Nusseibeh, CBE

Federated Hermes' latest on the US Elections Managers across our investment floor in London and Pittsburgh comment on the US Election 05/11/2020 - Eoin Murray

Federated Hermes comments ahead of US Election Federated Hermes comments ahead of US Election 28/10/2020 - Eoin Murray

Economic Outlook: Will the debt matter? Neil Williams examines the impact that various pandemic-related stimulus packages have had on both global government debt and the efficacy of monetary and fiscal tools available to policy-makers. 23/09/2020 - Neil Williams

Quarterly Economic Outlook: we've never had it so loose The US and UK are already running highly negative interest rates, when QE is considered, according to a report by the International business of Federated Hermes. 11/06/2020 - Neil Williams

Quarterly Economic Outlook: Keeping the punch bowl filled In hard macro terms, the tragic spread of the coronavirus provides another argument for keeping policy rates close to the floor, and the ‘punch bowl’ of central-bank liquidity filled. 18/03/2020 - Neil Williams

Q4 Economic Outlook: learning to live with deflation... In his latest Economic outlook, Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser to Hermes Investment Management, argues that Japan-style deflation is becoming an increasing possibility elsewhere. 18/09/2019 - Neil Williams

A protectionist tsunami is driving a new world order Is the trade war disruptive, or is it merely accelerating trends already underway? 19/08/2019 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Rising recessionary risks shifts focus to fiscal fallback options Monetary policy – which did the heavy lifting in the aftermath of the global financial crisis – has reached its limits. 10/06/2019 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Ahead of the Curve: Pushing the dovish pivot - the US inflation story "Add a short extract from this post, including key words." 25/02/2019 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Light in the darkness - a brighter 2019 for emerging markets? Emerging markets contended with a challenging backdrop in 2018, amid less accommodative global financial conditions, slowing economic growth in China and fraught US-China trade relations. 28/01/2019 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

How tech and female tenacity could shake up US politics (and the investment industry, too) 05/11/2018 - Eoin Murray

They Walk Among Us – The Extended Cycle Of Zombie Firms 31/10/2018 - Eoin Murray

How markets are missing the biggest populist movement of all 29/10/2018 - Saker Nusseibeh, CBE

Silvia Dall'Angelo responds to the BoE meeting The Bank of England kept policy on hold at today’s meeting, as widely expected. It has nudged up its Q3 GDP expectation, yet, by warning that Brexit uncertainty has increased even since August, the MPC could stay put on rates in the near future, as Brexit negotiations approach a crucial stage – including a soft deadline for a withdrawal deal in mid-November. Yet, the Bank has maintained a mild tightening bias, suggesting that a “gradual and limited” hiking cycle is appropriate under most circumstances going forward. Having increased rates at its August meeting, the Bank is likely to hike once again over the next year, provided Brexit negotiations proceed smoothly. Justifying higher rates has been a sober take on the supply side of the economy: in a context of sluggish potential growth, the limited spare capacity left in the economy is quickly disappearing, and excess demand is building. In order to avoid a last minute overreaction to inflationary pressures likely to emerge down the road, and taking into account the fact that monetary policy works with a lag, the Bank look still to be eyeing around three rate hikes in the next three years. That would take the Bank rate up to their estimate of short-term equilibrium, currently seen between 1.5% and 2%. This equilibrium rate (r*), defined as that needed to keep the economy on an even keel, is expected to rise to 2-3% thereafter. The logic being that faster productivity growth spurs wages, and leveraging continues to pick-up. 13/09/2018 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Escalating trade war is biggest risk for world economy The trade tariffs – and corresponding retaliatory measures – implemented are so far limited. In total, the value of affected trade now amounts to about $150bn globally, or 0.8% of overall world exports. However, adding up all the measures currently under discussion and assuming impacted countries retaliate commensurately, the amount of targeted trade could quickly rise to more than $1tn, or 6% of global exports. In her latest Ahead of the Curve, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment Management, argues an escalation of protectionist measures evolving into a trade war could represent the biggest challenge to the world economy. 13/08/2018 - Silvia Dall’Angelo

Hermes comments on the BoE rate hike: MPC may be putting as much store on tactics as strategy Neil Williams, Senior Economic Adviser, Hermes Investment Management: “After softer activity data, the BoE's rate-hike today, their second in this cycle, may raise some eyebrows. However, it shouldn't be seen as heralding a swift move upwards. “As with their first rise last November, the Bank's tone again reflects caution. Suspecting that its room to manoeuvre will become more constrained as Prime Minister May seeks a Brexit Treaty in 2019, it may be putting as much store on tactics as long-term strategy. Even if there is a deal next year, it would most likely only be a precursor to sorting out the various legal and trade systems by December 2020. “Motivating today's move will be the MPC’s assessment of very little slack left in the economy, and building excess demand. It will also be hoping that spring’s pay settlements data have been strong enough to help validate the traditional link with low unemployment. “Yet, their window to hike may become smaller in 2019, and even close by 2020. UK growth has almost ground to a halt - from the top of the G5 quarter-on-quarter growth-table in H2 2016 (just after the referendum) to the bottom by H2 2017 - despite a softer fiscal stance.” 02/08/2018 - Neil Williams