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Commentary

International Women’s Day 2024:

Markets Wrap Up

Press
7 March 2024
In recognition of International Women's Day, our female experts each share a view on what's been moving markets this week.

Public Markets:

Deborah Cunningham, Chief Investment Officer for Global Liquidity at Federated Hermes

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has been talking himself hoarse lately. Ever since he failed to push back against the market’s overly ebullient expectations for rate cuts following the December policy meeting, he has told anyone who’d listen the Fed isn’t ready to declare victory over inflation.

In an appropriate twist for the data-dependent Fed, it was a series of economic reports that stemmed the tide. Robust GDP and employment figures, sticky wage, consumer and producer inflation, and respectable manufacturing and housing numbers did what the policymakers could not. In late December, futures contracts predicted upward of seven quarter-point cuts in 2024. Following the bump in month-over-month core PCE in January, they have priced in essentially three—in line with Fed projections. That’s why we—and really everyone—anticipates no rate action at the mid-March or early May policy-setting meetings and expect the first ease to come in June or July.

Market participants will surely raise their fists to the Fed again, and it is understandable. Powell and company were so behind the ball when they first tightened rates long after inflation had exploded. But the shift in sentiment, along with the pause itself, has benefited cash managers and investors. Across the liquidity industry, elevated yields and extended average maturities have created better relative value in our humble opinion.

Orla Garvey, Senior Portfolio Manager for Fixed Income at Federated Hermes Limited
After a very strong finish to 2023, rates markets have so far this year been recalibrating for a broadly stronger data set and less dovish central bank commentary. As ever, Gilts have underperformed against most peers, some of this is due to the large outperformance into the end of last year but there has also been lingering concern around the UK fiscal outlook overhanging the market.

With growing fiscal deficits and increased financing needs, Jeremy Hunt’s Spring Budget was being closely watched. Ultimately there were no surprises given most of it was leaked before Jeremy Hunt stood up, nor were there any surprises on the gilt remit which has been a positive for the market. Now the budget hurdle has passed smoothly, and central bank pricing looks less challenging, this should be a short term positive for the Gilt market. Looking a little further ahead there is a risk of more fiscal events during the run up to the UK general election and then again afterwards. This could weigh on the market in a relative sense as it will likely require more term premium.

Louise Dudley, Portfolio Manager for Global Equities at Federated Hermes Limited
Share buybacks have been a topic of discussion this week for European and US companies. This demonstrates the confidence that businesses have in their outlooks for this year. With wage gains above inflation, the economic growth can keep going in the near term. The cooling labour market is not coming through yet.

With all the momentum for this year, increasingly there are those worried about what will take the fizz out of markets. Factor evidence suggests that even a slowdown in momentum does not lead to a selloff in the near term. So the rally continues despite the choppy outlooks. Positive results from Crowdstrike this week continued to bolster the constructive tech trade.

 
The UK budget led to a positive move for UK equities, though with inflation still high, the expectation for Bank of England cuts remains on the distant horizon and therefore we maintain some caution about the sustainability of the UK growth numbers.

Charlotte Daughtrey, Equity Investment Specialist at Federated Hermes Limited
In comparison to previous Super Tuesdays, this year’s results yielded few surprises and set up the 2024 US Presidential election to be a re-match of 2020. Whilst it is too early to call the outcome in November, this should be a relatively de-risked election campaign with both candidates having previously held the position as leader of the free world. Both candidates will want a strong economy which tends to be good for markets also. The US economy has continued to highlight its resiliency, the S&P 500 continues to reach new highs and the latest instalment of employment data (non-farm payrolls are due on Friday 8th march) suggests that the labour market is performing in line with the Fed’s hopes. In his address to Congress, Powell noted that it would “likely be appropriate to begin dialling back policy restraint at some point this year” which should provide comfort to the market. What did surprise the market this week was the decline in the US Dollar, highlighting that even with strong economic data volatility is ever present.

Nachu Chockalingam, Senior Portfolio Manager for Fixed Income at Federated Hermes Limited
The general tone across credit markets remained broadly balanced this week and generic spreads are relatively unchanged for the most part. We have seen the primary market picking up in recent weeks, and most new deals are hovering around their reoffer price or a touch higher. However, the size of the new issue premiums we saw a few weeks ago seem to be gone, for now at least. What is particularly interesting is how bifurcated the high yield market feels at the moment. On one hand, we have many low beta tight-on-spread and sufficient-on-yield bonds. Whilst, on the other hand we are seeing a growing list of volatile and sensitive credit stories creating nerves across the market, yet the potential for opportunities in equal measure.

Kate Fowler, Associate Director – Policy & Advocacy at Federated Hermes Limited
We were pleased to see the UK Treasury announcing secondary legislation this week to develop a regulatory regime for ESG ratings providers, a measure we have been supportive of given the wide use of such ratings within the industry. This regulatory oversight should be focused on transparency, governance and management of conflicts of interest, rather than standardisation. Proportionality will be key to ensure there is not a significant barrier to entry for smaller, innovative providers. Mitigating potential harms arising from the use of ESG ratings will also require firms using such ratings to be cautious and take responsibility for understanding their methodologies and limitations.

Private Markets:

Laura Vaughan, Head of Direct Lending at Federated Hermes
For direct lenders in the Northern European lower middle market, 2024 transaction activity has kicked off with a bang. Now with a clearer outlook on inflation, economic sentiment and interest rates, private equity’s primary M&A activity, has stepped up a gear. While only two months in to 2024, the pipeline of potential loan opportunities is growing at pace. At a time of 4% base rates, conservative loans, i.e. senior leverage of roughly three times, in this segment of the loan market are delivering yields for investors of over 9%. This further supports the continued attractiveness of the direct lending asset class.
Borrower appetite has swung from unitranche debt to senior secured, as they seek manageable interest costs in favour of documentation flexibility. In saying that, the balance of power continues to sit with lenders in this off-market environment, and the ability to negotiate robust documentation, including two covenants for example, remains.

Emma Howell, Managing Director, Infrastructure at Federated Hermes
Conditions over the first few months of 2024 have been mixed for infrastructure investors, with interest rates remining stickier in the UK and Europe, feeding through to the demand-based assets in investor portfolios. Macroeconomic conditions caused fundraising to collapse in 2023, but we are seeing early signs of fundraising prospects improving. An increasing number of institutions are now looking to allocate or reallocate towards infrastructure and private markets, typified by several significant infrastructure manger transactions in recent months, most notably Blackrock’s multibillion acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners in January this year. The trend of increasing allocations is likely to continue with infrastructure assets becoming relatively more attractive as inflation stabilises and central banks take a dovish turn.

Karen Sands, COO, Federated Hermes Private Equity
Macroeconomic factors including high interest rates, an acceleration in technological disruption and geopolitical shifts have created both challenges and opportunities for the private equity industry.
While large and mega-cap companies are more likely to be affected by these economic headwinds, we see highly compelling pockets of opportunity within the small and mid-market segments where companies are showing signs of resilience. Investing in this section of the market provides the opportunity for genuine growth-driven value-creation, without relying on leverage to drive returns.
Selectivity through the right market access, achieved through both high quality and quantity of deal flow from GPs with strong performance, enables us to make the most of the opportunities we see in the current environment.

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