Durable. Notre engagement.

Politics and the investor

20 March 2024 |
Active ESG
With more than a quarter of the world’s population going to the polls this year, we consider the investment implications of elections in India, Mexico, South Africa, the UK and the US.

Whichever way you cut it, 2024 will be a testing year for some of the world’s biggest democracies. Seven of the world’s ten most populous nations will go to the polls, accounting for a third of global GDP and a quarter of its population (see charts and table below).

In May, India’s billion-strong electorate will decide whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi deserves a third term in office. Mexicans vote for a new president in June, while in South Africa the ruling ANC faces its biggest electoral test since the end of apartheid.

November will be all about the US as voters decide whether their incumbent or former president should hold the keys to the White House. Then, at a date to be confirmed – though probably early Autumn –  UK voters will decide whether to extend the 12-year majority of the Conservative Party.

The implications for investors could be significant. Read on to find out the views of our investment teams.

Our fund manager views

The US election
The UK Election
India's election
The Mexican election
South Africa's election

For more on elections in 2024 and how they might affect the investment landscape, please see the latest video from our Unconstrained Credit team.

1 Source: Bloomberg as at 20 March 2024.

2 MORENA: Movement for National Regeneration (‘Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional’ in Spanish).

3 Andrés Manuel López Obrado is popularly known by the acronym AMRO.

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