Fast reading
- A Trump presidency 2.0 is likely to involve a reinvigorated focus on the Chinese yuan traded in the offshore market. Tariffs, meanwhile, are expected on a range of sectors, including Chinese electric vehicles (EVs), which could materially hit aluminium and copper prices.
- It is likely possibility that Trump will look favourably on West-leaning governments that are open to capital investment. A prime benefactor in this respect would be Argentina under the leadership of President Javier Milei, who has enthusiastically supported Trump and various US conservatives.
- In eastern Europe, there are a number of governments in the region that are ideological bedfellows – such as Viktor Orbán in Hungary – who will likely seize on the opportunity to make political capital. However, they will also face demands to increase their defence spending. Moreover, if as is likely, tariffs are levied on EU exports to the US, the region will be disproportionately affected.
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EMD report Q3 2024
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