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Commentary

Outlook for China: When one door opens…

Insight
3 March 2023 |
Active ESG, Macro
In our latest video insight, Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist, identifies the biggest opportunities and challenges faced by China’s economy on the road to reopening.

Fast reading:

  • The abandoning of China’s strict zero-Covid policy late last year and the announcement of a range of stimulus measures should drive a resurgence in outbound travel, an easing of global supply-chain pressures, and an increase in growth both domestically and more widely.
  • Owing to its size and rapid development, China had been a major driver of global growth for two decades before the pandemic hit. Given the constraints China’s economy will still be operating under post-Covid, GDP growth is unlikely to surpass mid-single digits and its new 2023 growth forecast sits at +5.5%. Even so, that represents a significant jump on its 2022 forecast and would be enough to provide a major boost to demand.

For more insights on China, please read our Global Emerging Markets 2023 Outlook.

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