Chinese trade data should indicate slowing activity in December, reflecting the continuing impact of higher US tariffs as well as its own counter measures. In November, export growth fell to 5.4% year-on-year, down from 15.6%, while import growth dropped from 20.8% to 3% over the same period. In the short term, the temporary truce between the US and China should limit downside risks. That said, the outlook for negotiations between the two countries is still uncertain. Even if the pair reach a deal, it is likely to be temporary and fragile in nature, and their underlying structural issues will probably persist. Elsewhere, eurozone industrial production is expected to weaken in December. Recent surveys suggest that manufacturing activity in the bloc slowed steadily in 2018. Notably, the manufacturing PMI fell to 51.4 in December, marking its lowest level since February 2016. Meanwhile, available hard data points to a monthly contraction in December. Indeed, German industrial production, which accounts for about a third of the eurozone aggregate, fell by 1.9% month-on-month in December. The weakness in the bloc’s manufacturing activity has probably been overstated in recent months, owing to special factors – namely, new car-emissions rules, dry weather in Germany and, more recently, disruption from the Yellow Vests protests in France. Nevertheless, industrial production in the bloc has been trending downward, in-line with external demand, most notably from China. On Wall Street, the fourth-quarter earnings season will get underway, with several big US banks reporting early this week. According to Factset, consensus forecasts suggest that the S&P 500 will enjoy earnings growth of about 11.4% in Q4 2018. That would mark the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the equities index. However, attention will shift to guidance for the year ahead amid rising concerns about the economic outlook.